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https://x.com/RyLiberty/status/2041076107877986599

Райан Доусон: Трамп провалился — угрозы бомбить инфраструктуру Ирана, хаос во внешней политике

Источник: https://x.com/RyLiberty/status/2041076107877986599

Краткое содержание

Отрывок из подкаста геополитического аналитика Райана Доусона (записан в Сеуле): критика действий Трампа в контексте войны с Ираном. Доусон утверждает, что угрозы Трампа атаковать гражданскую инфраструктуру являются военным преступлением, а сам президент демонстрирует признаки деменции и окружён «подхалимами».

Основные тезисы

  • Трамп угрожал атаковать мосты и электростанции Ирана — это военное преступление; Иран вправе ответить симметрично
  • Нефть достигла $114/баррель, перекрытие Ормузского пролива делает ситуацию катастрофической
  • Трамп постоянно меняет позицию по Ормузскому проливу: то «не нужен», то призывает открыть с ругательствами
  • Массовые увольнения: Хегсет, генерал Джордж, Пэм Бонди — признак формирования «Преторианской гвардии», лояльной лично президенту, а не Конституции
  • Трамп в 79–80 лет демонстрирует конфабуляцию — верит в собственную ложь; окружён «yes men»
  • Израиль «продал» администрации Трампа нарратив о лёгкой победе в Иране; реальность оказалась иной — война затягивается уже 6 недель
  • Хезболла применяет волоконно-оптические дроны, уничтожает израильские танки «Меркава» — Израиль не извлёк уроков из войны 2006 года и российско-украинского конфликта
  • Катар и Оман могут выиграть от ситуации; ОАЭ и Бахрейн — крупные проигравшие

Значимость

Доусон характеризует действия Трампа как хаотичные и потенциально разрушительные для международного порядка. Подкаст демонстрирует антиизраильскую и антиинтервенционистскую позицию, распространённую в части американских правых-нонконформистов.

🧾 Транскрипт (формат)

now let me bring ryan dawson geopolitical analyst human rights activist joining us from the city of seoul into this conversation uh ryan great tour is going it's not going very well for the empire despite all their claims trump would not be threatening to blow up infrastructure if he had the means to stop ballistic missiles if he had the means to reopen the strait of humus he keeps flip-flopping his position saying he doesn't need it don't in any way or the allies should go open it themselves then he was swearing like a child and making threats you've got 48 hours to do it or else you're going to blow up bridges and power plants which is a war crime he's announcing that he's purposely attacking civilian infrastructure and if he does do that iran can do it back it's just been a disaster oil's now a hundred and fourteen dollars a barrel as of this morning the tola and iran would collapse it didn't all they ended up doing was murdering him and his family and blowing up a school full of girls as well as a hospital and the opening volley which unified the country against these terrorists this is the fourth time they were preemptively attacked the second time they were attacked during negotiations and some of the things he wants he's talking about the enriched uranium that was already on the table and until israel and america attacked iran that was the default position they brought this on themselves and their golf air of allies are put themselves in the same situation they're losing billions of dollars every day and the pressure is building and they don't have the means to open the strait and he talked a lot and he said he didn't need it now he says do whatever else they don't seem to have a clear plan and now they're losing aircraft despite saying all of iran's radar was a hundred percent destroyed and they have no air defense images very recently coming from the city of heifa it shows that tel aviv and heifa the different areas of the israeli regime are being more and more vulnerable to the iranian attacks as this war is raging on there was a report from axios talking about a 45-day ceasefire uh and talks are taking place between iran and u.s uh regarding that uh is there a connection here the there axios is lying there are no talks going on the u.s cannot even directly talk to iran they are talking through pakistan or through turkey in some regards who they're talking to are it doesn't matter it's some faction they prefer to speak to they're not in charge iran is not going to end this war until there are security guarantees they don't want to have to wait six months and be doing this again they know the u.s and israel have run out of interceptors they know they're running very low on standoff munitions which is why their aircraft are getting shot down because they have to get closer and closer to iran to use dumb bombs because their long-range weapons have been run through and so now they're losing millions of dollars worth of planes they're losing pilots they're losing lives haifa is getting destroyed the refineries on fire the amerikava tank columns have been being taken out by cheap drones hezbollah has ukrainian style tactics taking out these tanks and the israelis don't adjust what they do their staging areas are blown up their radar in the north is gone which is why they don't have early warning which is why they're not running to shelters and so that port as well as the port in the south in iliat have been destroyed they don't like admitting their losses very loudly but it's not only that it's also been green airport it's been shut down tel aviv is getting tagged the whole region in the negev is being hit by iran and now the houthis are hitting southern israel as well they they don't really have anything to point to other than maybe some success murdering civilians from a distance in beirut with their air campaign on the ground they're losing badly and yeah the u.s has destroyed a lot of infrastructure in iran but battlefield wise army to army they're underground it's hidden they're using uh old school infrared rather than radar to tag u.s aircraft and take them out they've got man pads the pmu has man pads and they've got seasoned experienced fighters from the saa that have bled into the pmu and hezbollah who know what they're doing whereas on the other side no one seems to have a clear plan or know the direction that's why you saw a mass firing at the pentagon general george was fired general green um william green that is and then uh several of their staffers and then other people retired it seems to be the case that trump cannot handle bad news and anyone who's telling him the truth is getting removed replaced or fired and so people are resigning and i think some of these firings were just out of spite because they didn't want them invade a country of 90 million people with very defensive geography with 10 000 marines and paratroopers it just won't all that will happen is they'll all die that's not a real offensive plan but they this is what they're going with and unfortunately a lot of young men are about to to meet their end there is no purpose for america attack more than he can chew he doesn't seem to have a clear off ramp uh he's trying to negotiate while denying that he's trying to negotiate and iran's not even talking to him until america leaves the gulf completely and has some either form of reparations or the strait of hormous is has a toll booth placed on it to pay for the damages done there there aren't going to be any talks that around has all the leverage the u.s cannot be making any demands they need to be um complying to iran's demands that's the only way the straits going to get reopened is if they stop bombing and get out of the area and if they don't then they'll just be physically destroyed it's already brain's already off the table kuwait is next uh killing straight on his face from bad leadership all right two questions that i wanted to ask you donald trump has issued multiple threats against iran's civilian infrastructure uh an attack is going to happen according to donald trump in the next uh 48 hours uh do you think that he is going to do this uh knowing the consequences uh it's 50 50 a lot of the things he says is hot air and when you're going to attack something why would you announce when you're going to do it and what it is like why not go after the kramsha missiles oh you don't know where they are so you're going to hit a power plant it's if he does that then the lights are going to go out in kuwait and the lights are going to go out in all these gulf areas that can hit saudi arabia too it's not going well but the last times he ran his mouth about escorting ships out of the hormuz about mobilizing kurdish forces a lot of the stuff he said none of it came to fruition and he gave a four-day window or no now it's 10 days now he's saying 48 hours it's just blah blah and he did it on truth social he didn't have a press conference to talk to the public or the press he just wrote it like a tweet because he's a child and i don't think anybody's taking this red sea and uh the the way that the u.s used its uh ground force and also the air force in order to come and uh you know conduct a rescue operation and retrieve the pilots uh in iran uh so many analyzed that as a test for ground operations against iran which was catastrophic for the u.s equipment wise do you also see it that way their story doesn't add up and so we'll time will tell i i'm hearing kind of propaganda from both sides as to what went down there and f-15e was definitely shot down and one of the pilots escaped and the other one had to be rescued apparently he was wounded but they lost so much gear however why would you send multiple c-130s in it's like sending seven school buses to pick up one kid it doesn't make sense it seems to be that there was already a small w around of rescuing a pilot while ignoring the fact that they lost c-130s blackhawk helicopters and a-10 warthog of course the f-16 itself f-15 and then f-16 was shot down the same day in another theater of the war uh as well as some uh some of their very expensive uh spy drones so iran's air defense is working they're shooting down fighter jets and helicopters and transport planes and the closer they get because listen if they're going to go in the ground they go in with the air and artillery first well they did a test run with the air it appears and it didn't go well so maybe that will knock some sense into them and they'll think twice before trying to do a raid on the ground but these people you never know i mean it's it's like bad news and failure doesn't seem to phase them they keep doing the same mistakes over and over again which you're seeing in in lebanon as well there's about a hundred tanks there's a four-person crew per tank have been taken out and they keep seeing them in no roll cages nothing and they're getting hit with drones which you could have learned by watching the war between ukraine and russia but apparently they learned nothing and they are not still fighting world war ii in their head and that's just now how war is conducted anymore now based on your analysis ryan if we are uh considering the fact that donald trump was dragged into this by benjamin netanyahu right now based on the facts on the ground he must be looking for a way out is that right well if he was a rational person you'd say yeah this is not good for the world economy it's not doesn't gain the u.s anything they're losing their bases in the gulf they're losing their influence states are now buying oil from iran who weren't well that's what he should do but with all the pressure from wall street from everyone who's losing money none of that adds up to the location how immoral it is how devastating it is to the economy it doesn't matter he will always serve what netanyahu tells him to do that's why we named it epstein fury or operate the u.s politicians reacted with to donald trump's expletive laden threat to iran majorly taylor green bernie sanders were among the same people midterm elections around but uh he might be seen now he's 79 there's something wrong with him to put out uh social media posts the way he did saying the effing b words uh that's not what a president does and i think even people close to him even people who supported him are looking at the guy like he's complete it seems that we have lost right right here back go ahead who's got really mental problems sorry you were saying donald trump is dealing with mental problems as of now there are also evidence that he's also dealing with so many different physical problems as well uh is this the reason why very shortly because we are running out of time is this the reason why he's in a hurry to finish off i think he's in a hurry he really thought this war would be quick and easy that the ayatollah would be killed and it would crumble that's what the israelis told him so he's trying to find some nixon style last hurrah do a lot of bombing pack up and leave because every day this trade is closed it's crippling the the economy and it's hitting real estate it's hitting fertilizer gas everything is dependent on this and he knows it and the only way to open it is to go ahead and admit defeat and comply to demands he doesn't want to do that and so he's searching for some other way to get out of this but he knows of this edition of our special coverage of the war on iran we're going to be back soon with the latest news of this hour so stay tuned